The New Rules of War

Fascinating interview with Sean McFate on one of the latest Cognitive Crucible podcast episodes.

During this episode, Dr. Sean McFate discusses his influential book, The New Rules of War. Sean describes how the Westphalian state system is changing, consequences for conventional war, the rise of mercenaries and international mega-corporations, and information operations. Plus, the Cognitive Crucible gets not only one–but two–Monty Python references.

#110 SEAN MCFATE ON THE NEW RULES OF WAR

Worth a full listen, and I’ve just started the book.

Three things piqued my attention:

What matters in “future” war?

Information.

How should states that wish to compete, compete?

“Below the threshold of international media.”

How do we deter in the era of Great Power Competition?

“Sneaky” deterrence.


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How to Quit Smoking and Wage Nuclear War

Remember, innovation = connecting.

For a bunch of reasons, Thomas Schelling is in my life right now.

I’ve been reading Arms and Influence, and enjoying it.

It was strange then, when I listened to this episode of Radiolab on habits (You v. You) which featured an aging Thomas Schelling and his struggle to kick a smoking habit.

Zelda Gamson tried for decades to stop smoking. But while one part of her wanted to quit, another part just didn’t want to let go. So, how do you win a tug-of-war with yourself? We decided to ask one of the greatest negotiators of our time for some advice. Adam Davidson from Planet Money introduces us to Nobel Prize-winning economist Thomas Schelling, whose tactical skills saw him through high-stakes conflicts during the Cold War. But while his strategies worked wonders during nuclear stand-offs, it turns out they fell apart when he tried them on himself…in his own battle to quit smoking. Then one day, he had an idea so diabolical we thought no one would try it. Until we met Zelda, and her friend Mary Belenky, who came up with a contract powerful enough to give Zelda a fighting chance. Neuroscientist David Eagleman helps us untangle the tricky business of cutting deals with oursleves. And producer Pat Walters complicates things–in a good way–with the story of two brothers, Dennis and Kai Woo, who forged a deal with each other that wound up determining both of their futures.

You v. You, Radiolab

For the uninitiated, Thomas Schelling was a scholar and theorist of the Cold War who made major contributions to deterrence theory.

But, as I learned, he was also a smoker.

To kick the habit, he turned to one of the most extreme methods – the Ulysses Pact.

This takes its name from The Odyssey and Ulysses’ decision to tie himself to his ship so that he could still hear the Siren’s Song without losing his life. In Schelling’s case, he gathered his children and said: “…I quit and that they should never have respect for their father again if I returned to smoking.”

He was serious. He put his fatherhood on the line.

And he never smoked again.


As an aside, after doing a bit of a deep-dive on Schelling, I learned that his favorite book was Smoky the Cowhorse.

Schelling, a distinguished university professor of economics and public policy, was a pioneer in game theory, yet his widow, Alice Schelling, says the most influential book he ever read was one for children, the 1927 Newbery Medal winner “Smoky the Cowhorse” by Will James.

“He’d say it was the first time he understood empathy for other human beings,” says Alice Schelling. “I connect that with his sense of empathy for the people who are helped by the Southern Poverty Law Center.”

A Golden Opportunity

Currently reading.


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“Tactical things don’t matter for big-picture deterrence”

reagan receiving a brief about the middle east

Get smart on the Russia-Ukraine developments.

Over the past several weeks, tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered in the area near Russia’s border with Ukraine. But what does it signify?

Michael Kofman joins this episode of the MWI Podcast to discuss all of this and more. The director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, he is a longtime observer of Russia and specializes in the Russian military. You can listen to the full conversation below, and if you aren’t already subscribed to the MWI Podcast, be sure to find it on Apple PodcastsStitcher, or your favorite podcast app so you don’t miss an episode!

MWI PODCAST: A LOOMING SHOWDOWN OVER UKRAINE?

I’m not a Russia-guy, so this was a good episode to get me up to speed on what is (and isn’t) going on on the border with Ukraine.

The whole episode is good – and Michael Hoffman clearly has firm control over his material (Russia and Russian military capabilities).

I love this quote:

“Most of the cockamaney ideas about sending some more weapons or things to Ukraine – fine, if you want to increase military costs but you have to just appreciate that it’s going to make no difference in the calculus.”

~26:00

And he goes on.

“Tactical things don’t matter for big picture deterrence. Javelins, drones, are completely irrelevant to political leaders. They don’t know and don’t care about the stuff.”

~26:30

I appreciate this take, and I tend to agree. It’s what I was getting at the other day in regards to culture and other aspects of the human dynamics in strategy. These are interesting things to consider, but at the political and strategic level, they ultimately don’t matter.

Should they? I don’t think so.

Even when it comes to military strategy – the input of this or that tactic or weapon system may make a difference on the margins, but if they don’t alter the overall endstate, then it’s an exercise in futility.

It doesn’t matter how smart you are on the capability. There are limits to military power – and if you are using any of these “things” in service of the military, they are also limited – mostly by the strategy you’re operating under.

Then again, maybe it’s worth just rolling the dice? What’s there to lose?


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